Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Battten Down the Hatches: UCLA Anderson Forecast

The UCLA Anderson Forecast reports that California – and the US – are in for some hard times. But the economists acknowledge there are so many variables coming into play, their prognostications are at best “hunches.”

Some highlights of the report:

  • Nationwide, the unemployment rate will peak late next year at 10.5%
  • Jobless rate in California will soar to 11.9% by mid-2010
  • In California, the economy will stop shrinking by the fourth quarter 2009
  • Hikes in the state's sales and income taxes will also erase some of the gains from the federal stimulus package
Last year we wrote how the 2008 UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted the US would only “flirt with recession”. Their oracular vision proved myopic as California – and the US – tumbled into a pernicious recession. Let’s hope the Anderson Forecast’s economic assessment is equally wrong in their predictions for 2009.